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Daily State Ledger: Days 0–30

每日状态账本：第 0–30 天 — the colony's first month as balanced books

A per-person daily record of the displaced campus's first month: all 2,435 people, their rations, the food and fuel arithmetic, and who was at risk — generated from the worldbuilding canon by a deterministic build. Physical bookkeeping is computed from cited parameters; every authorial decision is logged with its reason. The novel's events are one path through this record.

Since 2026-10-01 the days are produced one at a time under the loop: the agent drafts the day, the solve realizes it against the day before, the ledger computes it, the author accepts it. Each day's page carries its brief, every person counted by lens, the crews against the formation schedule, what moved, the rules and chains that acted, and the raw files. The loop run is day_loop_2026-10-01: a day marked accepted is the author's accepted day and is what this ledger row was rebuilt from; solved, awaiting acceptance has its page but the row below still comes from the dictated day file; the rest are the dictated day files as authored.

The month at a glance

Day	Window	Alive	Deaths (cum)	Food (person-days)	Ration phase	Hunt (kg edible)	Diesel (L)	Critical band	Under the loop
0	W-0	2435	0	11.75	normal	0	25500.0	0	solved under the loop, awaiting acceptance →
1	W-0	2435	0	10.51	normal	120	21741.6	0	dictated day file
2	W-0	2435	0	9.26	normal	140	18307.2	0	dictated day file
3	W-1	2435	0	8.21	normal	150	16687.2	0	dictated day file
4	W-1	2435	0	7.16	normal	160	15067.2	0	dictated day file
5	W-1	2435	0	6.13	normal	180	13447.2	0	dictated day file
6	W-1	2435	0	5.10	normal	200	11827.2	0	dictated day file
7	W-1	2435	0	4.47	slim	240	10207.2	0	dictated day file
8	W-2	2435	0	3.91	slim	260	8587.2	0	dictated day file
9	W-2	2435	0	3.47	slim	280	6967.2	0	dictated day file
10	W-2	2435	0	3.04	bridge_50	300	6643.2	0	dictated day file
11	W-2	2435	0	3.16	bridge_50	300	6319.2	120	dictated day file
12	W-2	2435	0	3.15	micro	280	5995.2	2406	dictated day file
13	W-2	2435	0	3.05	micro	90	5671.2	2435	dictated day file
14	W-2	2434	1	2.95	micro	80	5347.2	2434	dictated day file
15	W-3	2434	1	2.84	micro	70	5023.2	2434	dictated day file
16	W-3	2433	2	2.73	micro	70	4699.2	2433	dictated day file
17	W-3	2433	2	2.63	micro	80	4375.2	2433	dictated day file
18	W-3	2433	2	2.53	micro	90	4051.2	2433	dictated day file
19	W-3	2432	3	2.44	micro	100	3727.2	2432	dictated day file
20	W-3	2432	3	2.43	micro	280	3403.2	2432	dictated day file
21	W-3	2432	3	2.43	micro	320	3079.2	2432	dictated day file
22	W-3	2431	4	2.43	micro	350	2755.2	2431	dictated day file
23	W-3	2431	4	2.43	micro	380	2431.2	2431	dictated day file
24	W-4	2431	4	2.36	refeed_step	1000	2107.2	2431	dictated day file
25	W-4	2430	5	2.04	refeed_step	380	1783.2	2430	dictated day file
26	W-4	2429	6	1.72	refeed_step	380	1459.2	2429	dictated day file
27	W-4	2429	6	1.35	refeed_step	380	1135.2	2429	dictated day file
28	W-4	2429	6	0.99	refeed_step	400	811.2	2429	dictated day file
29	W-4	2429	6	0.63	refeed_step	400	487.2	2429	dictated day file
30	W-4	2429	6	0.46	refeed_step	800	163.2	2429	dictated day file

Data downloads

Month-1 arithmetic verdict

Month-1 Arithmetic Verdict — Daily State System (Days 0–30)

Generated by substrate/daily_state/engine/report.py (T11). A pure consumer of the

chain outputs (ledger + state CSVs + day files + recipe book). No wall-clock

timestamps (AC-1.9). Where the arithmetic contradicts canon, the contradiction

is reported, not silently bent (AC-5.1).

1. Opening food stock vs the “~12 days” claim (AC-4.3, non-circular)

Computed opening food_stock_kcal = 57,260,836 kcal, from the

recipe food_stock section (Σ inventory mass × cited density) — never the

12-day figure as an input.

Day-0 population need (2,435 people, workload=light) = 4,872,400 kcal/day.
Computed days of food at normal rations = opening / need = 11.75 days.
weeks_layer_inputs.md §3.1 claim = ~12 days; computed/claim ratio = 0.98.

Verdict: PASS — the independently-computed opening stock lands within 2% of the canon ~12-day design target. The headline non-circular check holds.

2. Day-by-day depletion vs the §4.1.1 windows

food_stock_person_days = food_stock_kcal / kcal_need_total (days of food if everyone ate full physiological need that day).

Day	Window	food_stock_kcal	person-days	ration modal	hunting kg	diesel L
0	Day 0	57,260,836	11.75	normal	0	25,500
1	Days 1–6	51,211,739	10.51	normal	120	21,742
2	Days 1–6	45,117,527	9.26	normal	140	18,307
3	Days 1–6	40,003,750	8.21	normal	150	16,687
4	Days 1–6	34,909,972	7.16	normal	160	15,067
5	Days 1–6	29,856,194	6.13	normal	180	13,447
6	Days 1–6	24,842,416	5.10	normal	200	11,827
7	Days 7–9	21,803,461	4.47	slim	240	10,207
8	Days 7–9	19,075,194	3.91	slim	260	8,587
9	Days 7–9	16,928,305	3.47	slim	280	6,967
10	Days 10–11	14,821,416	3.04	bridge_50	300	6,643
11	Days 10–11	13,115,372	3.16	bridge_50	300	6,319
12	Days 12–23	13,082,594	3.15	micro	280	5,995
13	Days 12–23	12,669,817	3.05	micro	90	5,671
14	Days 12–23	12,237,261	2.95	micro	80	5,347
15	Days 12–23	11,784,706	2.84	micro	70	5,023
16	Days 12–23	11,332,928	2.73	micro	70	4,699
17	Days 12–23	10,901,150	2.63	micro	80	4,375
18	Days 12–23	10,489,372	2.53	micro	90	4,051
19	Days 12–23	10,097,817	2.44	micro	100	3,727
20	Days 12–23	10,066,261	2.43	micro	280	3,403
21	Days 12–23	10,066,261	2.43	micro	320	3,079
22	Days 12–23	10,066,261	2.43	micro	350	2,755
23	Days 12–23	10,066,261	2.43	micro	380	2,431
24	Day 24+	9,763,392	2.36	refeed_step	1000	2,107
25	Day 24+	8,451,564	2.04	refeed_step	380	1,783
26	Day 24+	7,140,650	1.72	refeed_step	380	1,459
27	Day 24+	5,599,633	1.35	refeed_step	380	1,135
28	Day 24+	4,098,616	0.99	refeed_step	400	811
29	Day 24+	2,597,600	0.63	refeed_step	400	487
30	Day 24+	1,896,583	0.46	refeed_step	800	163

Day 12 (D0): food_stock_person_days = 3.15 (stock 13,082,594 kcal) — NOT ≈ 0.
Day 30: food_stock_person_days = 0.46 (stock 1,896,583 kcal), still falling.

Finding (reported, not bent): AC-5.1's loose target “stock person-days ≈ 0 around Day 12” does not hold, and this is *correct* against canon's own arithmetic. weeks_layer_inputs.md §3.1 states the 12-day stock “stretches to 24 days at 50%, 60 days at 20%”; the ration curve (slim day 7, bridge day 10, micro day 12) plus the same-day hunting credit conserve the stores, so they plateau ~10–13M kcal through the micro window (days 12–23) rather than emptying. The day-12 “bulk food service stops” is a distributional/policy halt (reserve remaining stores for the micro-fuel lists + protect seed grain), not physical exhaustion. The stores instead draw down hardest during the day-24+ refeed ramp (whole colony at ~0.50 of need from stores while hunting covers only part), reaching ~0.5 person-days by day 30 — right as the first Portuguese cargo (Day 30–35) and the peak-hunting ramp (§6.3) take over.

3. Death placement and risk bands (AC-5.1)

Total deaths in horizon: 6 (famine-window Days 12–23: 4; refeed Days 24–27: 2).
Canon targets: 3–5 famine deaths Days 12–23 (incl. the first medication death per §4.3); 2–3 refeed deaths Days 24–27.

Day	Decedent	Band (prev day)	Override	Cause (clinical)
14	Liu Pingcai	critical	no	diabetic ketoacidosis — colony pooled insulin (medication.insulin_pool_dose_days
16	Ceng Fuer	critical	no	cardiac arrest in sleep — starvation cardiomyopathy / electrolyte derangement in
19	Zhou Weifang	critical	no	fatal cardiac arrhythmia under starvation stress — decompensation of pre-existin
22	Chen Xiugui	critical	no	starvation cardiac failure — terminal cachexia and bradycardia in a frail 73-yea
25	Eldane Jelil	critical	no	refeeding syndrome — sudden hypophosphataemia/hypokalaemia → fatal cardiac arrhy
26	Enkhtsogt Büüvei	critical	no	refeeding syndrome — cardiac collapse 48–72 h after the ration jump; electrolyte

All dictated deaths land in the computed critical band on the consulted (previous) day — none required an override (check 19 clean).

Finding (band saturation): by day 12 the *entire* alive colony is in the critical band (deficit-ratio path: cumulative deficit ≥ 3.0× daily need). The risk bands therefore confirm a colony-wide crisis but do not by themselves single out the decedents — decedent selection is the dictation layer's job (governing principle: physiology constrains plausibility, it does not compute who dies). All six decedents are tier-3; the famine deaths skew to the canon-vulnerable cohorts (insulin-dependent T1 diabetic, two frail elders in the 73–79 bracket, one chronic-cardiovascular adult), the refeed deaths to the worst-emaciated general-micro adults with refeed_flag set.

4. Contradictions and findings (reported, never bent)

1. Diesel cannot sustain the mandatory safety floor for 30 days. The chem_vent + bio_bsl2 floor is 1,944 L/day (WEEKS §3.9.5, declared “indefinite”); 25,500 L ÷ 1,944 = 13.1 days. With no diesel resupply in the horizon, a clean 30-day build is only possible by decommissioning the safety labs — the build dictates BSL-2 decommission on day 3 (§3.9.5 ‘Biology decommissioning path’) and chemistry wind-down on day 10, plus a hospital cut to 4 h/day. Diesel ends the month at 163 L. This is a genuine over-constraint: the canon’s “indefinite 1,944 L/day floor” is incompatible with 25,500 L of starting diesel.

2. Cold chain vs fuel is over-constrained. Holding the cafeteria cold chain through the day-12 food window (§3.9.4) would cost ~1,296 L/day × 12 ≈ 15,600 L — which, with the safety floor, blows the diesel budget. The build cuts the cafeteria generator on day 1 yet keeps cold_chain = intact, because the model treats cold-chain continuity as an independent policy switch (chain.py docstring), not mechanically coupled to cafeteria fuel. So the meat stays available despite no cafeteria power. A future model could couple them (cafeteria off → cold_chain broken → perishables spoil → mass-cook windfall per §3.9.4); that coupling is not modelled here.

3. Roster sampling artifact — no frail elder has heart disease. Canon §4.3 names “frail elders with pre-existing cardiac issues” as the archetypal early casualties, but in the generated roster every chronic_cardiovascular person is a woman aged 18–44 (sampled), and all three age≥73 persons are healthy. The two elder deaths therefore rest on the age≥65 vulnerability flag rather than an explicit cardiac health_status, and the cardiac death (day 19) is a 44-year-old. The casualties still match canon’s *pattern*; the mismatch is in the roster’s health sampling, flagged for a future roster pass.

4. Refeed-flag window vs death dates. The computed refeed window is 3 days (physiology.refeed_window_days), opened by the day-24 jump (micro ~0.11 → refeed 0.50, > the 0.35 threshold). Both refeed deaths (days 25–26) land inside the flagged window; canon’s “first 3–7 days” would also admit a day-27 death, but only two are dictated (lower bound of the 2–3 band).

5. Food near-exhaustion at day 30. Feeding 2,435 people at ~0.50 of need from stores during the refeed ramp (days 24–30), with hunting covering only part, draws the stores down to ~0.5 person-days by day 30. Inside the horizon this is not negative, but the trend implies exhaustion within days — consistent with the canon hand-off to Portuguese cargo (Day 30–35) and the peak-hunting ramp, both outside this build’s horizon.

5. Consolidated pick list (AC-5.2 — for Stephen's review)

Every authored numeric pick within (or, with override, outside) a recipe band. All picks below are in-band (no overrides).

Day	Pick key	Value	Effective band	Reason (abbreviated)
1	hunting_yield_kg	120	[100, 400]	FOOD §4.1.1 'Days 1–6 — Burning Through Campus Food': hunting/fishing teams 'still disorga
2	hunting_yield_kg	140	[100, 400]	FOOD §4.1.1 'Days 1–6 — Burning Through Campus Food': hunting still disorganised; marginal
3	hunting_yield_kg	150	[100, 400]	FOOD §4.1.1 'Days 1–6': hunting still disorganised; slow day-3 ramp within early_yield [10
4	hunting_yield_kg	160	[100, 400]	FOOD §4.1.1 'Days 1–6 — Burning Through Campus Food': teams organising slowly; day-4 edibl
5	hunting_yield_kg	180	[100, 400]	FOOD §4.1.1 'Days 1–6 — Burning Through Campus Food': hunting still supplements, not susta
6	hunting_yield_kg	200	[100, 400]	FOOD §4.1.1 end of 'Days 1–6': teams more coordinated by day 6, yield rising toward the mi
7	hunting_yield_kg	240	[100, 400]	FOOD §4.1.1 'Days 7–9': hunting now better organised; day-7 yield in the upper-middle of e
7	ration_fraction_slim	0.65	[0.5, 0.7]	FOOD §4.1.1 'Days 7–9 — First Official Cuts' = 50–70% of pre-teleport meals. Day 7 is the
8	hunting_yield_kg	260	[100, 400]	FOOD §4.1.1 'Days 7–9': hunting yield continues its slow climb within early_yield [100,400
8	ration_fraction_slim	0.6	[0.5, 0.7]	FOOD §4.1.1 'Days 7–9 — First Official Cuts': portions tighten from the day-7 0.65 toward
9	hunting_yield_kg	280	[100, 400]	FOOD §4.1.1 'Days 7–9': hunting near the top of early_yield [100,400] as the SUV teams coo
9	ration_fraction_slim	0.5	[0.5, 0.7]	weeks_layer_inputs.md §5 'Day 9 canteen-manager 50% ration cut' (C1 curve inflection): the
10	hunting_yield_kg	300	[100, 400]	FOOD §4.1.1 'Days 10–11': day-10 hunting at the upper end of early_yield [100,400] (pre-ra
11	hunting_yield_kg	300	[100, 400]	FOOD §4.1.1 'Days 10–11': last pre-rain day of organised fair-weather hunting at the top o
12	hunting_yield_kg	280	[100, 400]	FOOD §4.1.1 day-12 'D0': last fair-weather day before the rain week; organised hunting in
12	ration_kcal_micro	200	[0, 300]	FOOD §4.1.1 'Day ~12 — D0': bulk food service stops, most people drop to 'roughly 0–300 kc
12	ration_kcal_micro_fuel_list	700	[500, 900]	FOOD §4.1.1: the micro-fuel list (hunters on duty, night medical/perimeter, mothers with i
13	hunting_yield_kg	90	[40, 160] (×0.4 rain)	Rain week day 1 (WEEKS §3.2): SUV hunting 'substantially harder' — the rain modifier x0.4
13	ration_kcal_micro	200	[0, 300]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro phase carried — 200 kcal (mid micro band [0,300], near-zero).
13	ration_kcal_micro_fuel_list	700	[500, 900]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro-fuel list carried — 700 kcal (mid band [500,900]).
14	hunting_yield_kg	80	[40, 160] (×0.4 rain)	Rain week (WEEKS §3.2): degraded SUV hunting, effective band [40,160] under the x0.4 modif
14	ration_kcal_micro	200	[0, 300]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro phase carried — 200 kcal (mid micro band [0,300], near-zero).
14	ration_kcal_micro_fuel_list	700	[500, 900]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro-fuel list carried — 700 kcal (mid band [500,900]).
15	hunting_yield_kg	70	[40, 160] (×0.4 rain)	Rain week trough (WEEKS §3.2): worst of the 'severely degraded' window, effective band [40
15	ration_kcal_micro	200	[0, 300]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro phase carried — 200 kcal (mid micro band [0,300], near-zero).
15	ration_kcal_micro_fuel_list	700	[500, 900]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro-fuel list carried — 700 kcal (mid band [500,900]).
16	hunting_yield_kg	70	[40, 160] (×0.4 rain)	Rain week trough (WEEKS §3.2): degraded SUV hunting, effective band [40,160]; 70 kg edible
16	ration_kcal_micro	200	[0, 300]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro phase carried — 200 kcal (mid micro band [0,300], near-zero).
16	ration_kcal_micro_fuel_list	700	[500, 900]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro-fuel list carried — 700 kcal (mid band [500,900]).
17	hunting_yield_kg	80	[40, 160] (×0.4 rain)	Rain week (WEEKS §3.2): degraded SUV hunting, effective band [40,160]; 80 kg edible as the
17	ration_kcal_micro	200	[0, 300]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro phase carried — 200 kcal (mid micro band [0,300], near-zero).
17	ration_kcal_micro_fuel_list	700	[500, 900]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro-fuel list carried — 700 kcal (mid band [500,900]).
18	hunting_yield_kg	90	[40, 160] (×0.4 rain)	Rain week easing (WEEKS §3.2): effective band [40,160]; 90 kg edible.
18	ration_kcal_micro	200	[0, 300]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro phase carried — 200 kcal (mid micro band [0,300], near-zero).
18	ration_kcal_micro_fuel_list	700	[500, 900]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro-fuel list carried — 700 kcal (mid band [500,900]).
19	hunting_yield_kg	100	[40, 160] (×0.4 rain)	Last rain-week day (WEEKS §3.2, Days 13–19): rain easing, effective band [40,160]; 100 kg
19	ration_kcal_micro	200	[0, 300]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro phase carried — 200 kcal (mid micro band [0,300], near-zero).
19	ration_kcal_micro_fuel_list	700	[500, 900]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro-fuel list carried — 700 kcal (mid band [500,900]).
20	hunting_yield_kg	280	[100, 400]	Rain cleared (day 20): fair-weather SUV hunting resumes, back into the full early_yield ba
20	ration_kcal_micro	200	[0, 300]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro phase carried — 200 kcal (mid micro band [0,300], near-zero).
20	ration_kcal_micro_fuel_list	700	[500, 900]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro-fuel list carried — 700 kcal (mid band [500,900]).
21	hunting_yield_kg	320	[100, 400]	Post-rain recovery: organised fair-weather hunting climbing toward the top of early_yield
21	ration_kcal_micro	200	[0, 300]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro phase carried — 200 kcal (mid micro band [0,300], near-zero).
21	ration_kcal_micro_fuel_list	700	[500, 900]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro-fuel list carried — 700 kcal (mid band [500,900]).
22	hunting_yield_kg	350	[100, 400]	Post-rain recovery: near the top of early_yield [100,400] as the SUV teams re-coordinate;
22	ration_kcal_micro	200	[0, 300]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro phase carried — 200 kcal (mid micro band [0,300], near-zero).
22	ration_kcal_micro_fuel_list	700	[500, 900]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro-fuel list carried — 700 kcal (mid band [500,900]).
23	hunting_yield_kg	380	[100, 400]	Last micro day before the big hunt: organised fair-weather hunting at the top of early_yie
23	ration_kcal_micro	200	[0, 300]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro phase carried — 200 kcal (mid micro band [0,300], near-zero).
23	ration_kcal_micro_fuel_list	700	[500, 900]	FOOD §4.1.1: micro-fuel list carried — 700 kcal (mid band [500,900]).
24	hunting_yield_kg	1000	[500, 1500]	FOOD §4.1.1 'Around Day 24 — Big Hunt': SUV-enabled large-game success brings in 'hundreds
24	ration_fraction_refeed_step	0.5	[0.2, 0.5]	FOOD §4.1.1 / §4.2 Phase C: 'rations jump too fast for some of the most starved'. The step
25	hunting_yield_kg	380	[100, 400]	Day after the big hunt: yield falls back to organised fair-weather level (early_yield [100
25	ration_fraction_refeed_step	0.45	[0.2, 0.5]	FOOD §4.2 Phase C: after the day-24 jump, clinicians hold the ramp at a controlled 0.45 of
26	hunting_yield_kg	380	[100, 400]	Organised fair-weather hunting holds at the top of early_yield [100,400]; 380 kg edible (b
26	ration_fraction_refeed_step	0.45	[0.2, 0.5]	FOOD §4.2 Phase C: controlled refeed held at 0.45 of need (within band [0.30,0.50]).
27	hunting_yield_kg	380	[100, 400]	Organised fair-weather hunting holds at the top of early_yield [100,400]; 380 kg edible (b
27	ration_fraction_refeed_step	0.5	[0.2, 0.5]	FOOD §4.2 Phase C: with the worst refeeding casualties past (72 h after the hunt), the ram
28	hunting_yield_kg	400	[100, 400]	Hunting stabilising at the top of early_yield [100,400] as the colony settles into the chr
28	ration_fraction_refeed_step	0.5	[0.2, 0.5]	FOOD §4.1.1 'Day 30+ — Stabilised Chronic Under-Eating': ramp held at 0.50 of need (top of
29	hunting_yield_kg	400	[100, 400]	Hunting stable at the top of early_yield [100,400]; 400 kg edible (band-window proxy, see
29	ration_fraction_refeed_step	0.5	[0.2, 0.5]	FOOD §4.1.1 'Day 30+ — Stabilised Chronic Under-Eating': ramp held at 0.50 of need (top of
30	hunting_yield_kg	800	[800, 1300]	FOOD §4.1.1 'Day 30+ — Stabilised Chronic Under-Eating' / §6.3 Phase 1: hunting now 'rampi
30	ration_fraction_refeed_step	0.5	[0.2, 0.5]	FOOD §4.1.1 'Day 30+': ramp held at 0.50 of need (top of refeed_step band [0.30,0.50]); th

6. Assumption list (recipe entries flagged `confidence: assumption`)

Every number below is authored (canon gives direction or concept, not the figure). These are the knobs most worth Stephen's scrutiny.

Recipe key	Value / band	Rationale (abbreviated)
agriculture.germination_days	[7, 14] days	Days from planting (seeds_planted) to germination (germinated) — the maize/grain sprout band. Authored 7-14 da
agriculture.maturation_days	290 days	Days from germination (growing_crop) to first harvest. Authored ~290 so that planting in W-2 (~day 10-14) + ge
agriculture.seed_kg_per_area_unit	25 kg	Seed mass (kg) consumed per hectare planted — the seed-stock draw of apply_planting (S5.2). Authored 25 kg/ha
agriculture.yield_kcal_per_area_unit	20000 kcal_per_person_day	Edible kcal per hectare per day at FULL maturity (the area unit is the hectare, matching the day-file `plantin
goods.bricks	[150, 300] table	Daily fired-brick yield band for the W5-brick-kiln (cluster_trajectories.md §W5-brick-kiln). Canon (WEEKS §W5)
hunting.big_hunt_yield	[500, 1500] kg_edible_per_day	FOOD §4.1.1 (Day ~24 big hunt) describes 'hundreds of kilos of fresh meat' from an SUV-enabled large-game succ
hunting.early_yield	[100, 400] kg_edible_per_day	FOOD §4.1.1 says Days 1-6 hunting is 'still disorganised' with 'almost all calories from campus stores', and q
hunting.gasoline_range_l_per_kg	1 L_per_person_day	Gasoline→range→kill-ceiling coupling (state-ledgers spec, US-4 AC-4.6; design §4.1 cap_hunting_by_gasoline). T
hunting.rain_modifier	0.4 multiplier	WEEKS §3.2 dictates that the Day-13 rain week makes SUV hunting 'substantially harder' (bogged vehicles, scatt
medication.insulin_pool_dose_days_initial	80 days	Colony-pooled insulin coverage in person-days at T0, for the chain.py dose-day pool (design §9 medication deci
morale.baseline	0 count	The per-cohort morale index opens at 0.0 (neutral) for every cohort on Day 0 (design §5.1: morale_by_cohort op
morale.despair_per_deficit_person_day	-0.0008 count	Despair delta per deficit-person-day (food ledger: Σ over persons over the day of max(0, need − intake), a phy
morale.event_shock	0 count	Dictated event-shock deltas keyed by the day-file `morale_events` tag (the `shocks` map; the scalar `value` 0.
morale.grief_per_death	-3 count	Per-death grief delta applied per colony death in the window (deaths-in-window from the casualty_check.py roll
morale.trauma_weight	-8 count	Per-person carry for a cohort member in the casualty register's `traumatized` state (casualties.yaml line 41 —
physiology.condition_add_lactating	500 kcal	Design §6 flags the lactation increment as assumption-flagged. +500 kcal/day is the conventional exclusive-bre
physiology.condition_add_pregnant	300 kcal	Design §6 flags the pregnancy increment as assumption-flagged. +300 kcal/day is the conventional 2nd/3rd-trime
physiology.refeed_jump_threshold	0.35 fraction	FOOD §4.2 Phase C / §3.3 establish the refeeding-syndrome concept (rations raised too fast kill the most starv
projects.agriculture	(structured)	Canon (WEEKS §W5-agriculture) names the farming crew; the C-AGRI seed chain (S5) consumes this project's perso
projects.brick_kiln	(structured)	Canon (WEEKS §W5-brick-kiln) names the construction team and the kiln build but gives no bricks/person-day thr
projects.cs_lab	(structured)	Canon (WEEKS §W5-cs-lab-cluster) names the CS-lab operators; light-labor, shared compute draw (not a dedicated
projects.hunt	(structured)	Canon (WEEKS §W5-hunt, FOOD §4.1.1) names the hunting crew; the KILL itself is a dictated pick (hunting.early_
projects.language_bridge	(structured)	Canon (WEEKS §W5-language-bridge) names the small (~3-8) integration-bridge crew; light-labor, headcount-only.
projects.medical	(structured)	Canon (WEEKS §W5-medical) names the clinic team; light-labor, headcount-only — no energy sink. Authored: 1 wor
projects.procedural	(structured)	Canon (WEEKS §W5-procedural) names the governance/procedure team; light-labor, headcount-only. Authored: 1 wor
projects.security_perimeter	(structured)	Canon (WEEKS §W5-security-perimeter) names the perimeter/watch team; light-labor, headcount-only. Authored: 1
ration_phases.cooked_meal_waste_fraction	0.1 fraction	Canon does not quantify kitchen/serving/plate loss on cooked communal meals. Authored 10% waste applied to ser
ration_phases.refeed_step	[0.2, 0.5] fraction	FOOD §4.2 Phase C names the refeeding window ('rations increased too fast → refeeding syndrome') but does not
spoilage.throttle_curve	(structured)	Cold-chain spoilage is a CONTINUOUS throttle T∈[0,1] (state-ledgers spec, design §3.2): spoiled_fraction(class
water.drinking_l_per_person_day	2.5 L_per_person_day	FOOD §6 states water is 'almost as important as food' and WEEKS §3.9.2 makes lake-fetching a daily labour/risk

7. Headline

Opening-stock check: PASS (ratio 0.98 vs the ~12-day claim).
Deaths: 6 total — 4 famine-window (Days 12–23) + 2 refeed (Days 25–26), all in the computed critical band, all tier-3, no overrides.
Food/fuel never negative across Days 0–30; chain builds clean; determinism gate passes (check 21).
Open findings for Stephen: the diesel/safety-floor over-constraint (#1), the cold-chain decoupling (#2), the roster cardiac-elder sampling gap (#3), and the day-12 stock not ≈ 0 (correct vs §3.1, but diverges from AC-5.1's loose wording).

Build unknown. Generated by substrate/daily_state/engine/export_site.py; data and methodology: substrate/daily_state/ in the project repository.